Donald Trump doesn't like losing, but he hates expensive gas even more. As the second week of the US-Israel conflict with Iran grinds on, the bravado of the opening salvos is hitting a wall of cold, hard economic reality. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, isn't sugarcoating it. He’s calling this a "war of choice" that Trump now owns completely. But ownership comes with a price tag that the American voter won't tolerate for long.
The math is simple and brutal. Oil is hovering around $100. The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital energy artery, is effectively a ghost town. When 20% of the world's oil supply gets trapped behind a wall of threats and naval skirmishes, the "Make America Great Again" agenda starts to look like "Make Energy Unaffordable Again."
The regime change trap
For days, the administration flirted with the idea of toppling the Iranian government from the air. It’s a seductive thought for a White House that prefers "Move Fast and Break Things" over traditional diplomacy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth talked about fighting to win without "woke" rules of engagement. They even posted social media videos of bomb strikes set to hype music.
But Bremmer is pointing out the obvious flaw. You can blow up a building, but you can't blow up a bureaucracy. The Iranian political system, anchored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is built to survive decapitation. It’s a "decentralized mosaic defense." You kill one leader, and the system reorganizes before the smoke clears.
The White House is starting to realize there’s no organized opposition ready to take over. There’s no "Iranian George Washington" waiting in the wings. Without ground troops—which Trump has zero appetite for—regime change is just a fantasy that keeps the war going forever. Now, the administration is backing away from that rhetoric, pivoting instead to "economic leverage."
Why oil is the real commander in chief
Trump’s recent phone call with Vladimir Putin tells you everything you need to know about the current panic level. He’s actually talking about waiving sanctions on Russian oil. Think about that for a second. To offset the supply shock caused by the war with Iran, the US is looking to let more Russian crude hit the market.
- The Kharg Island Factor: Roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports go through Kharg Island. Taking it out would cripple Tehran, but it would also send global markets into a seizure.
- The Hormuz Lockdown: Iran has threatened that if they can't export oil, nobody will. They’ve promised to stop "one liter of oil" from leaving the Gulf.
- The Domestic Fallout: High gas prices are political poison. Trump won a mandate on the economy, and a prolonged energy crisis could evaporate that support before the midterms.
The "Donroe Doctrine"—Trump’s aggressive, unilateral approach to the hemisphere—is meeting its match in the Middle East. It turns out that hitting allies like the EU with 15% tariffs while asking them to support a war they didn't want isn't a great way to build a coalition.
Moving fast and breaking the wrong things
The strategy so far looks more like a Silicon Valley product launch than a military campaign. We've seen the sinking of an Iranian vessel that was a guest at an Indian naval exercise. We've seen strikes in neutral waters. These moves haven't brought Iran to the table. Instead, they’ve made allies like India and Sri Lanka deeply uncomfortable.
Iran’s Foreign Minister has already rejected negotiations, essentially daring the US to launch a ground invasion. They know Trump doesn't want a "forever war." They're betting they can outlast his patience and his voters' wallets.
Honestly, the "quick exit" Bremmer talks about isn't just a preference—it’s a necessity. Trump needs a win he can put on a hat, and "Oil at $150" isn't it. The administration is looking for a way to claim victory, secure some nuclear concessions, and get the tankers moving again before the US economy takes a permanent hit.
If you’re watching the markets, keep your eyes on the Strait of Hormuz and the rhetoric coming out of the White House regarding Russia. The pivot from "regime change" to "sanction waivers" is the clearest sign yet that the administration is looking for a ramp to get off this highway. Watch for a sudden "deal" that looks suspiciously like a return to the status quo, branded as a historic victory.
