Prime Minister Keir Starmer insists he will “100 per cent” support Andy Burnham’s sudden bid to return to Westminster through the upcoming Makerfield by-election, but this public show of unity masks a brutal survival strategy. Starmer is not backing his long-time rival out of generosity; he is doing it because blocking Burnham a second time would trigger an immediate, uncontrollable mutiny within a Labour Party currently collapsing in the polls. Following a catastrophic set of local elections that saw Wes Streeting resign from the cabinet and Reform UK surge across working-class heartlands, Starmer’s authority has evaporated. By opening the door for the Greater Manchester Mayor to enter Parliament, the Prime Minister is gambling that the toxic reality of Westminster politics will neutralise the "King of the North" before Burnham can mount a formal leadership challenge.
It is a desperate calculation born of absolute weakness. Just months ago, Starmer successfully used Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to block Burnham from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election, citing the financial and political costs of triggering a premature mayoral race. Today, with sitting Makerfield MP Josh Simons resigning explicitly to vacate a seat for Burnham, Starmer has been forced to retreat. The Prime Minister’s allies are attempting to spin this capitulation as an effort to bring the party together to focus on working families. The reality is far more transactional. Starmer knows that a wounded Prime Minister trying to bar a popular regional leader from the democratic process would have turned the Makerfield selection into an open declaration of civil war. Meanwhile, you can read related stories here: Why PM Modi Meeting the King of Norway Matters Way More Than the Royal Photo Op.
The Makerfield Trap
The upcoming contest in Makerfield is no ordinary by-election. It is a high-stakes containment strategy. For years, Andy Burnham has enjoyed a unique political luxury: he has exercised immense national influence without carrying any responsibility for the daily failures of the Westminster government. From his mayoral perch in Manchester, he could routinely condemn the "bloated national state," build a distinct "Manchester-ism" brand, and demand radical devolution, all while maintaining a net favourability rating of +8—a figure that looks miraculous compared to Starmer’s dismal -38.
By allowing Burnham back into the House of Commons, Starmer is forcing his chief rival to step onto a far more dangerous battlefield. Inside Westminster, Burnham will no longer be an untouchable regional executive; he will be one of hundreds of Labour MPs bound by party discipline, collective responsibility, and the grim reality of a deeply unpopular legislative agenda. History shows that charismatic outsiders often diminish when forced back into the parliamentary grind. Starmer’s team is quietly betting that the daily friction of national politics will tarnish Burnham’s golden-boy status well before a formal leadership challenge can be coordinated. To understand the full picture, check out the excellent report by The New York Times.
Furthermore, the contest itself is perilous. While Labour holds a nominal paper majority of 5,399 in Makerfield, recent local election data suggests the ground beneath their feet has turned to quicksand. In the latest local contests across the area, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK captured roughly 50 per cent of the vote, compared to Labour’s miserable 25 per cent, sweeping every single councillor seat in the process. A national poll by Findoutnow recently put Reform six points ahead of Labour across the country, projecting a scenario where Labour could be reduced to a single-digit number of parliamentary seats. By stepping into Makerfield, Burnham is walking directly into a fierce, unpredictable fight against a surging right-wing populist movement. If Reform pulls off an upset, or even slashes Labour’s majority to double digits, Burnham’s aura of electoral invincibility will vanish in a single night.
The Mutiny on the Treasury Bench
The immediate catalyst for this crisis was not Burnham’s ambition, but an internal collapse within Starmer’s own cabinet. The resignation of Wes Streeting as Health Secretary shattered the illusion of executive control at Downing Street. Streeting did not just step down; he openly declared he had lost confidence in the Prime Minister's direction, opening a vacuum that more radical factions were all too eager to fill.
Net Favourability of Potential Labour Leaders (Ipsos Poll)
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Andy Burnham: +8
Wes Streeting: -18
Yvette Cooper: -18
Angela Rayner: -29
Keir Starmer: -38
This internal polling reality explains why figures like Liverpool Mayor Steve Rotheram publicly demanded that the NEC allow Burnham to stand. The party’s wider infrastructure is in panic mode, convinced that Starmer's current trajectory poses an existential threat to Labour's future.
To survive the immediate aftermath of Streeting's departure, Starmer needed an immediate distraction and a way to diffuse the tension. Allowing Burnham to run accomplishes both. It channels the energy of internal dissidents away from a Westminster coup and into a localized by-election campaign in Greater Manchester. It forces the rebellious factions of the party to spend their resources defending a seat against Reform UK rather than plotting in the corridors of the Palace of Westminster.
The North-South Ideological Schism
Beneath the tactical maneuvers lies a profound ideological division over the future of the British state. In his initial campaign addresses at northern investment summits, Burnham has laid out a platform that reads less like a standard by-election pitch and more like an alternative manifesto for government. He has targeted the cost-of-living crisis, called for a wholesale transfer of resources to local authorities, and explicitly condemned the national state as fundamentally broken.
"I know what my party has offered in the past has simply not been good enough. A vote for me will be a vote to change Labour, because Labour needs to change if we are to regain people's trust."
— Andy Burnham, May 2026
This rhetoric is a direct assault on Starmer’s highly centralized, cautious governance model. Starmer’s political strategy has long relied on technocratic management and a dread of alienating middle-class southern voters. Burnham, by contrast, is attempting to build a coalition based on regional grievance, industrial rebirth, and economic populism tailored specifically for Leave-voting, post-industrial northern towns.
To protect his flank in a seat that voted heavily for Brexit, Burnham has already announced he will not advocate for the UK to rejoin the European Union, seeking to shut down a vulnerability that Reform UK is eager to exploit. Yet this positioning sets up an inevitable clash with Starmer’s more Europhilic parliamentary party. If Burnham wins Makerfield, he will enter the Commons with a personal mandate to reshape national policy, setting up a permanent internal argument over the economy, devolution, and the party's core identity.
Why the Gambit Could Fail
Starmer's strategy of containment relies on two major assumptions: that Burnham will be diminished by the parliamentary meat-grinder, and that Labour can successfully hold off Reform UK in Makerfield. If either assumption proves wrong, the Prime Minister’s survival tactic will turn into his execution warrant.
Should Burnham win comfortably by running on a platform openly critical of Downing Street, it will prove that anti-Starmer populism is the only viable currency for Labour in the North. Burnham would return to the backbenches not as a humbled regional politician, but as an insulated alternative leader-in-waiting, possessing the one asset Starmer currently lacks: genuine democratic momentum. Every subsequent government misstep, legislative rebellion, or poor polling result will cause backbenchers to look toward the member for Makerfield.
Starmer has stated clearly that he is "not going to walk away" and intends to fight the next general election. But by granting his most dangerous rival a passport into Westminster, he has surrendered control of the timeline. The Prime Minister is gambling that a brutal by-election will break Andy Burnham. If it doesn't, it will be Starmer who runs out of track.
